Multinational corporation · Mining · Europe and LATAM
The challenge
A European mining corporation was considering a €500 million investment in a Latin American country with an unstable political climate. Before approving the outlay, its board asked for a risk analysis that went beyond the financials to cover geopolitical, regulatory, social and logistical risk.
What we did
- We commissioned a strategy and risk partner from our network to produce a go/no-go risk report: an intelligence dossier built to support a decision, not a standard consulting report.
- The partner drew on non-public sources of information and connected seemingly unrelated variables to anticipate future scenarios.
- We delivered the report to the client through a secure channel.
The outcome
- An 80-page report setting out 5 risk scenarios, with their probabilities and mitigation plans.
- The report advised against investing for the time being and recommended waiting 12 months, because of a regulatory risk that other analysts had missed.
- Six months later, the country’s government announced a retroactive tax change that would have cut the project’s profitability by 40%.
- The client avoided a potential loss of hundreds of millions of euros.
Services involved: Global Regulatory Strategy.
